Neoclassical Realism and the Underdevelopment of China’s Nuclear Doctrine by Paolo Rosa

Author:Paolo Rosa
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer International Publishing, Cham

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

PRC

54.2

53.7

54.2

51.7

51.2

52.2

55.2

55.6

USSR

82.2

80.8

81.7

81.7

83.7

83.2

85.2

85.7

US

100

99

102.8

102.4

100.5

97

88.6

83.1

The second half of the 1960s was the most critical period for China’s national security due to the overlap of internal and external crises. The outbreak of the Cultural Revolution in 1966 had serious repercussions on the international behaviour of China: on the one hand, it contributed to diplomatic isolation, with the leadership completely absorbed by domestic affairs; on the other hand, it favoured a militant diplomacy that alienated the sympathies of many nations.

The situation worsened in 1969, when the conflict with the Soviet Union, which hitherto had remained purely verbal, escalated to border clashes along the Amur and Ussuri rivers . To escape this critical situation of international isolation, strategic encirclement and internal instability, Mao—supporting the line of Zhou Enlai and officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs—began a policy of rapprochement with the US.

The long conflict with the Soviet Union, which had begun in the late 1950s, reached a point of maximum virulence in March 1969, when a military confrontation broke out (Robinson 2003). In previous years, numerous minor incidents had occurred along the Ussuri River and were mostly caused by Chinese initiatives. The first serious military accident occurred on March 2. During this clash, 38 Russian soldiers were killed. Two weeks later, on March 15, the military clashes were repeated, and this time they were much more violent, as the two sides were better prepared and more heavily armed. The severity of the situation was demonstrated by Mao’s order of a partial mobilisation of the people on the same day: Mao Zedong : Every county should establish a [militia] regiment, this should be done all over the country. In a big county, three battalions should be established; in a middle-size county, two battalions; and in a small county, one battalion. During peacetime, they will stay in the locality; when the war breaks out, they will supplement the field army. When the war breaks out, it will not be enough to rely upon the annual conscription […]

Mao Zedong : The northeast, the north, and the northwest should be prepared. Once we are prepared, if the enemy does not come, that does not matter. We are now confronted with a formidable enemy. It is advantageous to have the mobilization and the preparation. The Soviets know that we will not invade their country as it is so cold there. We will try to gain mastery by striking the enemy only after he has struck. Our nuclear bases should be prepared, be prepared for the enemy’s air bombardment.2

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